“Impeachment Without Conviction”: Here are the Five Alternative Scenarios for Trump’s Future Presidency

September 26, 2019September 26, 2019 James Fetzerblog

Authored by Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start impeachment proceedings against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President. In this case the removal of President Trump from office is unlikely, neither by conviction nor by the 25th Amendment.
What’s more, history suggests that it will be a challenge for the Democrats to complete the process of impeachment & conviction before Election Day 2020. And then there is – at least as things stand now – virtually no chance of conviction. Consequently, it is unlikely to affect who is on the Republican ticket for the presidential elections in 2020.
However, it will set the tone for the election campaign. In fact, it could even backfire on the Democrats as it may energize Trump voters to go to the polls. Meanwhile, the impeachment theme may overshadow any political message that the Democrats might want to sell to the electorate. What’s more, Democratic candidate Joe Biden may not come out of this process unscathed. This would strengthen the position of the remaining leading candidates in the Democratic primaries, which are far more left-wing than Biden. While this strengthens the position of the left wing in the Democratic Party, it may scare away centrist voters on Election Day. Since impeachability is a political decision rather than a legal matter, history will tell whether starting an impeachment inquiry was the right decision for the Democrats.
Impeachment proceedings and the related further deterioration of the US domestic political climate add to the range of factors that are creating the uncertainty for the economic outlook that the Fed is monitoring closely. What’s more, they reduce the chance of meaningful fiscal policy legislation. Therefore, a third insurance cut before the end of the year – which is already in our baseline forecast – has become more likely. It also makes our forecast of a recession in 2020 and the Fed cutting all the way back to zero before the end of next year more likely

Introduction

Yesterday, the White House released a memorandum of the 30 minute telephone conversation between President Trump and President Zelenskyy – as spelled in the memorandum – on July 25. According to the memorandum President Trump said: ‘The other thing, There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it… It sounds horrible to me.’ Both the Senate and the House adopted resolutions calling on President Trump to release the whistleblower complaint to Congress. Earlier, the House Intelligence Committee set a Friday deadline for the Justice Department to release the whistleblower’s account of this event.

On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) announced on television that she was directing six House committees that were already investigating President Trump to continue their efforts under the umbrella of an impeachment inquiry. She said that ‘the actions taken by the President have seriously violated the Constitution.’ She referred to reports that President Trump has withheld aid to Ukraine while he was pressing President Zelenskyy to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son.

In this special we sketch the different scenarios that could now unfold for Trump’s presidency. We start by explaining how the processes of impeachment & conviction work, and the likely outcomes given the current distribution of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. We also consider an alternative route to remove the President from office, through the 25th Amendment. We discuss the crucial role that Republican senators will play and the decisive role of voter support for President Trump. We take a look at the likely timeline of impeachment & conviction and the impact on the campaign for the 2020 elections. We also try to assess how this will affect the Fed’s rate decisions.

Impeachment and conviction

People often talk about impeachment as if it were identical to removing the President from office. However, this is not the case. In order to remove a President from office, the House of Representatives first has to impeach him, and then the Senate has to convict him. Note that President Clinton was impeached by the House in 1998, but he was subsequently acquitted by the Senate, so he was not removed from office. The only other President who was impeached by the House was Andrew Johnson in 1868, but he was also acquitted by the Senate. Formally, no US President has ever been removed by impeachment and conviction. When the Republican leadership informed Richard Nixon that impeachment and conviction were inevitable he resigned prematurely and it never came to a vote.Due to the two stage procedure of impeachment and conviction it is not that easy to remove a President from office. What’s more, while for impeachment in the House of Representatives only a simple majority of more than 1/2 is needed, conviction in the Senate requires a 2/3 majority. At present, the Democrats have a 235-198 majority in the House (1 independent, 1 vacancy). In contrast, the Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate (2 independents formally caucus with the Democrats). Assuming that all the Democrats vote for impeachment and conviction, it would take 20 Republican defectors in the Senate to remove the President from office. This equals about 38% of the Republican Senators. So while impeachment is within reach of the Democrats, the hurdle for conviction is much higher.

An additional complication is that not everybody votes along party lines. President Clinton was impeached by a House of Representatives in which the Republicans had a 228-206 majority. However, while the vote was 228-206 on the perjury charge, it was only 221-212 on the obstruction of justice charge. In fact, 5 Republicans voted against the perjury charge and 12 Republicans voted against the obstruction of justice charge (5 Democrats voted in favor of both charges). Two other charges – another perjury charge and ‘abuse of power’- failed. The impeachment in the House was followed by a trial in the Senate. The Republicans had a 55-45 majority in the Senate, but 5 Republican Senators voted ‘not guilty’ on both charges, while 5 other Republicans voted ‘not guilty’ on the perjury charge. All Democratic Senators supported their President. Hence President Clinton was acquitted on both charges. In fact, the vote got nowhere near the 2/3 majority needed for conviction. So even with a majority in both the House and the Senate, the Republicans were not able to remove a Democratic President from office. This should give us some idea of how difficult it could be to get a Republican President removed by a Senate with a Republican majority.The crucial factor was that President Clinton kept the support of his fellow Democrats in Congress. In contrast, President Nixon was abandoned by many Republicans during the Watergate affair in the end. In the House of Representatives the Democrats had a 235-182 (18 vacancies) majority and in the Senate a 57-40 majority (1 Conservative, 1 Independent, 1 vacancy). In the Senate it would have taken at least 7 Republican defectors (17.5% of the Republican Senators) to convict Nixon. This underlines that it will be crucial whether the Republicans will continue to defend their President or whether they will defect.

Figure 1: Impeachment and conviction

Resignation

Besides being removed from office by the Congress, a US President can also decide to step down ‘voluntarily’. In fact, this is what Nixon did when it became clear that impeachment and conviction were inevitable. However, the difference between Watergate and Trumpgate is that Nixon was dealing with Democratic majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, while Trump finds his fellow Republicans in control of the Senate. So while Nixon stepped down to avoid a humiliating impeachment and conviction, Trump could survive a trial in the Senate. Nevertheless, in the end Nixon was abandoned by his own party. So if removal from office would become inevitable, President Trump might decide to resign as well.

The 25th Amendment

In theory, there is an alternative legal route to remove the President from office. Since 1967 when the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted, if the President is removed from office, resigns or dies, his Vice President automatically becomes the next President of the United States. In 1974 when Richard Nixon stepped down, he was succeeded by Gerald Ford. If Trump is removed from office or if he resigns, the next President would be Mike Pence. This amendment to the Constitution was made because the latter is unclear about who succeeds the President if he or she is removed from office, resigns, dies, or is otherwise unable to discharge the powers of the presidency. While most of these reasons for succession are clearcut, the last provides an interesting twist. What are the criteria for being unable to discharge the powers of the presidency? And who decides when to invoke the 25th Amendment in this case?

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment states that the President could be removed from office by his own Vice President with the support of the majority of the President’s own cabinet. If they send a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office to the President pro tempore of the Senate (Chuck Grassley) and the Speaker of the House of Representatives (Nancy Pelosi) the Vice President (Mike Pence) shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

If the President (Donald Trump) then sends a written declaration that no inability exists to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet transmit within 4 days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.

Finally, Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within 48 hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within 21 days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within 21 days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President remains Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Note that invoking the 25th Amendment would work much faster than impeachment and conviction proceedings: it could be done within 25 days. However, it would require not only 2/3 of the Senate, but also 2/3 of the House of Representatives. What’s more, Section 4 has never been invoked. However, it was briefly considered during the Reagan presidency in 1987 when there were doubts about his abilities to discharge the powers of the presidency, because he appeared ‘inattentive’, ‘inept’, and ‘lazy’. What’s more, it has been argued that Section 4 should have been invoked after the assassination attempt at President Reagan in 1981. While at present it appears unlikely that President Trump will lose the support of his own Vice President and Cabinet before he loses the support of Congress, if time becomes an issue we cannot rule out that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will be invoked for the first time, especially if impeachment proceedings have not yet started.

What’s more, if the Vice President and the majority of the Cabinet were to invoke Section 4 of the 25th Amendment that could in itself raise the number of Senators and Representatives willing to remove the President from office because of the signal it would provide about the President’s abilities from his inner circle. In fact, the Vice President may decide to consult with the Republican leadership in Congress beforehand.

While Section 4 may not have been written for the current circumstances, the way it is formulated does offer the possibility to use it nevertheless. Note that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is similar to the ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’ in case of impeachment: it is vague and allows for some discretion to deal with unforeseen circumstances.

Figure 2: The 25th Amendment

Source: Rabobank

Republican Defense or Defection?

While impeachment & conviction has the appearance of a judicial process, it is in fact political. This means that conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate are willing to support their President. The same can be said about the invocation of the 25th Amendment. A crucial event that could determine the willingness of the Republicans to do so is Election Day 2020, when in addition to the White House, all seats in the House of Representatives and 1/3 of the seats in the Senate are at stake. A Republican Senator has no incentive to support the President if it will cost him his re-election. If support for Trump among the Republican voters is waning, this will increase the probability of impeachment and conviction. However, at present it seems that President Trump’s approval rating has stabilized, after a decline in his first year in office. What’s more, according to a Sept 16-20 Reuters/Ipsos poll 82% of registered Republicans approved of his job performance.

An important consideration for the Republicans is that if they remove their own President from office, they will not have to hand over the White House to the Democrats: in fact the Vice President will take over. So once President Trump is removed, Vice President Pence will become the next President of the United States. He has a much longer track record within the Republican Party than President Trump and Pence’s views are broadly in line with the conservative wing of the party.

In terms of the legislative agenda we could see a new chance of progress if we move from a constitutional crisis to a new President as Washington DC could refocus on making policy. Therefore the incentives for the Republicans to defect depend both on their re-election chances in 2020, and the increased probability of getting things done once they remove the President from office if progress on the legislative agenda has come to a standstill.

Impeachment timeline

How much time could impeachment and conviction take? President Clinton’s impeachment proceedings lasted from January 3, 1998, until December 19, 1998. The Senate trial took place from January 7, 1999, until February 12, 1999. So impeachment of Clinton by the House took almost 12 months, his trial in the Senate ended two months later. If we are going to see the same time schedule, it could take until September 2020 before President Trump is impeached and his trial in the Senate would last until November 2020, probably after Election Day. So it will be a challenge for the Democrats to get President Trump impeached before Election Day 2020, and then there is – at least as things stand now – virtually no chance of conviction.

Impact on the elections

Consequently, it will not affect who is on the Republican ticket for the presidential elections in 2020. However, it will set the tone for the election campaign. In fact, it could even backfire on the Democrats as it may energize Trump voters to go to the polls. Meanwhile, the impeachment theme may overshadow any political message that the Democrats might want to sell to the electorate. What’s more, Democratic candidate Joe Biden may not come out of this process unscathed6. This would strengthen the position of the remaining leading candidates in the Democratic primaries, which are far more left-wing than Biden. While this strengthens the position of the left wing in the Democratic Party, it may scare away centrist voters on Election Day. Since impeachability is a political decision rather than a legal matter, history will tell whether starting an impeachment inquiry was the right decision for the Democrats.

Scenarios for Trump’s presidency

To summarize, we have identified 5 possible scenarios for Trump’s presidency. In the two most likely scenarios President Trump remains in office, at least until Election Day 2020.

In the first scenario, the Democrats fail to impeach the President, despite their majority. This could occur if the Democratic leadership fails to persuade enough Democratic Congressmen that impeachment is either justified or smart politics. In the second scenario, the Democrats are successful in impeaching the President, but the Republicans prevent a conviction in the Senate.

A less likely scenario is that the Republicans abandon their President and contribute to a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict Trump. This would lead to his removal from office. It would take an alarming decline in voter support for Republicans to take this approach.

Two other unlikely scenarios involve the invocation of the 25th Amendment. In this case Trump’s own Vice President and Cabinet, with the approval of Congress, decide that his removal from office is warranted, either because of irresponsible behavior or because he is hurting the reelection chances of the Republicans in Congress. So the initiative would come from President Trump’s own Republican Party, not the Democratic opposition. The ‘25th Amendment’ route offers 2 scenarios: resumption of office or removal from office. The latter would require the largest decline in voter support for Trump.

While at present we think that President Trump will not be removed from office through either Impeachment & Conviction or through the 25th Amendment, the probabilities that we attach to the various scenarios could evolve over time. Events in recent years have taught us that what seems unlikely today could be reality in the not too distant future. What’s more, history has shown that in the end Nixon was abandoned by his own party and Reagan’s inner circle at one time contemplated invoking the 25th Amendment.

More for the Fed to worry about

For the Fed, the impeachment proceedings and the related further deterioration of the US domestic political climate add to the range of factors – such as the global economic growth, trade policies, Brexit – that are creating the uncertainty to the central bank’s outlook that it is monitoring closely. What’s more, the increased partisanship reduces the chance of meaningful fiscal policy legislation. This means that the burden of sustaining the economic expansion will continue to fall on monetary policy. Therefore, a third insurance cut before the end of the year – which is already in our baseline forecast – has become more likely. It also makes our forecast of a recession in 2020 and the Fed cutting all the way back to zero before the end of next year more likely.

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11 thoughts on ““Impeachment Without Conviction”: Here are the Five Alternative Scenarios for Trump’s Future Presidency”

Bahmi says:

September 27, 2019 at 3:47 pm

Duff is one dude I never, ever trusted. He’s a Democratic insider and is bold and proud of that fact. He has blind hatred for Trump. Also, his insulting comment on Paul Craig Roberts, a true-blue Patriot and America lover was way below the belt. Duff insults and excoriates anybody who doesn’t “know” as much as he does, he’s really a disgrace, but thinks he God’s gift.
Also, never forget the past record of Billy Barr. Barr is dirty through and through, he is very bad news and worked in CIA with Mueller the Mule early in his career. He’s a dangerous operative, Trump has to watch his step around this guy. He needs to be jettisoned NOW. Bad things can only come from working with Barr. Danger!!

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Dennis Gannon says:

September 27, 2019 at 1:45 pm

Trump is going to win in a landslide. Biden will quit the race soon, he was going to lose soon without Ukrainegate. Hunter is screwed, he is really going to have to hide. The Dems are helping Trump win, this latest trick is so phony, only the lying mainstream media is for it, EVERYONE else sees it for the political lie it is. They KNOW Biden blackmailed Ukraine to help his son steal money. One thing is getting more sure, more people hate the lying mainstream media more than ever. They are lower than child rapists and murderers.

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Will says:

September 27, 2019 at 1:41 pm

Here it is, once again…the Dems accusing Trump of what they have done.themselves ……hey, idiots…it’s not working any longer….YOU have been caught too many times using this ‘technique’!

FIRED UKRANIAN PROSECUTOR’S TESTIMONY.

BOOOOM! THE FOLLOWING IS CONFIRMED ACCURATE. THIS NEEDS TO GO VIRAL FOLKS, HERE IS THE TESTIMONY OF THE PROSECUTOR BIDEN GOT FIRED. The entire most relevant portion is now posted below, READ IT ALL, it is solid gold.

https://www.scribd.com/document/427618359/Shokin-Statement

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1. Will says:
  
  September 27, 2019 at 1:45 pm
  
  And more from Jim Stone that could scare the hell outta us…..
  
  Big troubles ahead
  There is an obvious coup underway and whoever wins is going to determine whether or not we have a future. America has gone full blown banana republic, as shown by this statement from Trump:
  
  “Rep. Adam Schiff fraudulently read to Congress, with millions of people watching, a version of my conversation with the President of Ukraine that doesn’t exist. He was supposedly reading the exact transcribed version of the call, but he completely changed the words to make it……….sound horrible, an me sound guilty. HE WAS DESPERATE AND HE GOT CAUGHT. Adam Schiff therefore lied to Congress and attempted to defraud the American Public. He has been doing this for two years. I am calling for him to immediately resign from Congress based on this fraud!
  
  My comment: Fat chance he will resign, and fat chance Trump has anyone available that will enforce the law and take out Schiff. You can’t just haul off and read a lie like that in Congress unless the system is subverted, if it was not, Schiff would have already hung. In better days, he’d have been hung within hours, or shot on sight. You just can’t do what Schiff did. Yet he did, and he got away with it.
  
  This does not bode well for America. Enforcement of rule of law may be so dead already that no matter what is revealed, nothing will happen. It is beginning to appear like the communist takeover of America was completed a while ago, and “progress” towards communism is going to proceed come hell or high water, at whatever pace it takes to keep the frog from jumping until it is boiled.
  
  WE ARE DAMN CLOSE.
  
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Will says:

September 27, 2019 at 5:53 am

Even Jim Stone is befuddled:

Wait a minute, I can’t put my finger on this – Are they really still going to try to impeach Trump after that transcript release??!!??
I can’t figure out if I am reading regurgitated crap or if they really are going to proceed with this and raise on a busted flush. WTF, over??!!??

Here’s the bottom line folks: If they proceed with this impeachment and they somehow via abject corruption make it happen, you had damn well better consider these captures.
This is the only way America will be going if they impeach Trump – Trump really is who is holding it all back and the left has made it’s intentions VERY CLEAR with it’s open hatred for white America.
Is this what the report at Deagel.com is talking about?

http://82.221.129.208/.wb1.html

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Will says:

September 27, 2019 at 5:50 am

Revealing quote from a new PCR article on ZH:

The ultimate purpose of the constant attacks on Trump is to teach the American voters that electing a president who is disapproved by the Establishment is futile. The Establishment simply will not permit any change and will frustrate and destroy any president not selected by them as a candidate.

This is the real way so-called “American democracy” works. The establishment guides the selection of the Democrat and Republican candidates. Whichever wins, the Establishment wins. This didn’t happen in Trump’s case, and so he has to be prevented from altering the Establishment’s agendas.

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Don says:

September 26, 2019 at 5:58 pm

Can someone please explain why a dozen people in the WH who heard the famous Ukraine phone call would rush to tell this anonymous person the details of the President’s call so he could write a Complaint to the Congress??? [We now understand that the writer is a CIA agent placed into the WH to spy on the President.]

The entire Complaint sounds fake.

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1. Dachsie says:
  
  September 27, 2019 at 8:57 am
  
  This current political theater about the Phone Call is just the latest pulled out of the Democrats bottomless bag of tricks. So many of their previous attempts to oust Trump failed so now they are trying this.
  
  It is all based on lies and deepest deceptions and definitely Treason.
  
  One quality I see in this latest attempt is a desperateness, a go-for-broke, all or nothing last-ditch, thrashing and flailing effort. THEY MUST win in destroying America or else, if America stands and still has some semblance of rule of law and the Constitution, THEY will all spend the remainder of their lives in prison or hopefully some to the gallows.
  
  _______________
  
  From John Adams to Massachusetts Militia, 11 October 1798
  
  Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.
  
  ___________________
  
  We are hearing some inspiring words from the president at the U N, but I want to look at ACTION and am coming up empty.
  
  James 1:23-25
  
  For if anyone is a hearer of the word and not a doer, he is like a man who looks intently at his natural face in a mirror. For he looks at himself and goes away and at once forgets what he was like. But the one who looks into the perfect law, the law of liberty, and perseveres, being no hearer who forgets but a doer who acts, he will be blessed in his doing.
  
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Will says:

September 26, 2019 at 4:03 pm

Here’s a comment that sums up my feelings fairly well:

Here is some advice for Mr. Trump. I expect you have plenty of advisors, but I bet none of them have put this bug in your ear. Mr. Trump, you seem like a nice guy, a bit naïve maybe, but it does seem like you are too trusting. One of your first mistakes, was to leave any of the Obama appointees in places of authority. That’s bit you in the ***. Secondly, you have alienated a lot of your base, but siding with the very ones you promised us you would hold to account, i.e., Wall Street, The Fed, bankers, et al. Now, you’ve gotten yourself in quite a fix. So, here’s some advice, you may take it for what it’s worth. You are going to have to go into almost full dictator mode, and develop and implement a “scorched earth” policy, in dealing with these putrid pieces of ****, who would seek to bring you down, and our nation with you. If you haven’t come to the conclusion, now is the time to do so, that we really face no threat from Iran, China, Venezuela, Syria, or wherever else may be the case, no, the greatest threat to the survival of our nation, is from the people you pass in the hallways everyday. Those addicted to power, control, and corruption for their own personal gain. You have a military at your disposal, and if that is not enough, you have at your fingertips a vast army of patriots, who only await your call. You have our number Mr. President, or at least I’m pretty sure you can get it. We’ll be waiting for your call.

Sincerely,

One who does not find this **** funny anymore.

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dave Kraft says:

September 26, 2019 at 1:50 pm

Ever heard of Joel Harding? I didn’t until today, A excerpt from TheSaker.is article titled The Terrorists Among US – The Coup Against the Presidency. Former Green Beret Joel Harding pioneered IO for the US military. In 2012, he took his expertise, the core of regime change, to the extreme for Ukrainian nationalists inside the State Department and in the US Ukrainian Diaspora.Harding revolutionized regime change by asking the crucial question; What if we did this at a whole nation level? Next Generation Regime Change. What you are about to see is literally the cutting edge of US military regime change. Check out the story: https://thesaker.is/the-terrorists-among-us-the-coup-against-the-presidency/

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1. Will says:
  
  September 26, 2019 at 2:35 pm
  
  So, here we have a former SEAL working to unseat a US President. Am I wrong? Is this not treason? Why is this guy still free? Maybe this arsehole is behind Duff’s recent treasonous article, eh?
  
  How good can he be if HRC didn’t get in?
  
  What the hell is going on in this country?
  Can anyone make sense of this?
  
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Authored by Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

Introduction

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