A Reliable Voting Bloc for Decades, Minorities Now Look for Alternatives to Democrats

By Lawrence Wilson

Democrats gathered at the state fairgrounds in Columbia, South Carolina, to await the results of their party’s primary election. President Joe Biden, the only candidate to campaign in the state, won handily, as expected.

From the podium, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), 83, took a call from the chief executive, who thanked South Carolinians for their support. Applause followed, with congratulations all around.

As the modest crowd dispersed, Mr. Clyburn spoke with the press. The veteran congressman and staunch Biden ally said that the president’s support among black voters remained unshakable.

“The best illustration of that is that he got 96 percent of the vote in this primary,” Mr. Clyburn said. “But his largest percentage—over 97 percent—was in the town of Orangeburg, where there are two HBCUs [historically black colleges and universities] and a community college.”

“I go to an African American barbershop,” Mr. Clyburn said. “I go to an African American Church. Joe Biden is as strong with African Americans as he has ever been.”

Mr. Clyburn’s view defies the findings of several recent polls and contradicts a trend that has been observable for several years. Namely, that Democrats have a problem with black voters, especially men. Hispanic voters, too.

Over the last eight years, minority voters have slowly but steadily migrated away from associating themselves with the Democratic Party, a movement that appears to be led by men.

An April poll from The Wall Street Journal shows that 30 percent of black men in battleground states intend to vote for Donald Trump. Hispanic voters who lean Republican are approaching parity with those who lean Democrat.

In simplest terms, analysts say, it amounts to a classic case of leaders being blind to generational change, taking their constituents for granted, and failing to deliver on the most basic function of government—to create conditions in which people can thrive.

It is unclear whether Democrats can halt—or at least counter—this decline in minority support before the November election. What is clear is that the demographic composition of both parties is in flux. These shifting political allegiances could significantly impact both the 2024 election and the future of party politics.

A man holds a ‘Blacks for Trump’ sign as he waits to see Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at an event in Sterling Heights, Mich., on Nov. 6, 2016. (Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images)

Steady Migration

Support for the Democratic Party among black and Hispanic voters has been eroding for years.

The percentage of black voters who “lean Democrat” topped out at near 90 percent in 2008 but fell to 66 percent by 2023, the lowest level yet recorded according to data from Gallup’s annual polling on the subject.

Meanwhile, the percentage of black voters who “lean Republican” rose from single digits to 19 percent over the same period.


The percentage of Hispanic voters who “lean Democrat” fell from about 60 percent in 2016 to 47 percent in 2023, while the percentage of those who “lean Republican” rose from about 25 percent to 35 percent.

A similar shift occurred among Asian-American voters. Some 30 percent of Asian Americans voted Republican in 2020 according to Gallup. That’s up from 18 percent in 2016, according to exit polling. In California, the shift was even more pronounced with 54 percent of Asian American voters favoring Trump in 2020 according to the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

“It shows up consistently in survey after survey, and it also shows up in actual electoral results going back to 2016,” Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, told The Epoch Times.

“And there’s just real movement and more diversity in the electoral outcomes in [predominantly black and Hispanic precincts] than had been true in the past. So I think Democrats who are inclined to write it off as artificial are engaged in wishful thinking because it shows up in multiple different indicators.”

And the shift is being driven by multiple factors, observers say, which may vary by ethnic group.

Supporters cheer President Joe Biden as he speaks during a rally at Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Nov. 1, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Failure to Improve

A signal issue that cuts across ethnic lines is the perceived failure of the Biden administration to improve the economic condition of the people.

“Unfortunately, Biden can’t hide from this economy, and minorities are losing trust in it,” Charlie Kolean of the R.E.D. political action committee told The Epoch Times. “Minorities see that big government is no longer helping them but hurting them.”

That matches the finding of Whitley Yates, diversity and engagement director for the Indiana Republican Party.

“For the black community in general, they have been lied to consistently. They have been promised things every election cycle and have been used by the Democratic Party to remain in positions of power without any type of progress for those communities,” Ms. Yates told The Epoch Times.

Black unemployment was low and median household income rising under President Trump, according to Ms. Yates, but President Biden was able to appeal to black voters based on promises of student loan relief and the legalization of marijuana, seen as a criminal justice issue by many black Americans.

While hundreds of thousands of student loans have been partially paid or forgiven under President Biden, the economic life of many black citizens has worsened. “The way this economy has impacted the black community has been catastrophic. Inflation and the consumer price index have gone up astronomically, which has hurt businesses,” Ms. Yates said. “People began to realize that it was a lot of smoke and mirrors.”

To some extent, this shift in allegiance plays out along generational lines, at least among black voters, according to Marcurius Byrd, a Democratic organizer from Columbia, South Carolina.

“Our generation didn’t grow up with the things that a lot of people who lived through the Civil Rights era did,” Mr. Byrd told The Epoch Times. “The Democratic Party has given them more victories within their lifetimes. We haven’t really seen that in the younger generations.”

For many black voters, the question for Democrats appears to be “What have you done for me lately?”

“There’s a thirst for someone who’s not going to just talk about what’s wrong, but who is going to produce tangible policies that people can feel,” Ms. Yates said.

“Biden’s biggest worry is that black voters see him as not delivering on voting rights, responsible for inflation, and failing to stop Israel’s devastation of Gaza.” Donald Nieman, professor of history and provost emeritus at Binghamton University, State University of New York.

Democrats are also at risk of losing Asian American voters based on economic performance. In a recent AAPI Data/AP-NORC survey, 67 percent of Asian voters said they disagreed with President Biden’s handling of inflation (67 percent), the economy (58 percent), and student debt (54 percent). More than 40 percent of registered Asian voters said inflation was the most important issue in a Gallup survey.
President Donald Trump supporters from Japan gather to show support in Scranton, Pa., on Oct. 23, 2020. (Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images)

Mutual Concern Over Immigration

The Democrats’ choice to deal with illegal immigration primarily as a humanitarian issue rather than a matter of national security has angered some black and Hispanic voters, who see themselves as bearing the brunt of the issue.

“Blacks and Latinos tend to be working class and are thus disproportionately hurt by inflation and immigration. The undocumented immigrants flooding the country tend to live in their neighborhoods and compete with them for jobs,” Henry Olsen, senior fellow at Ethics and Public Policy Center, told The Epoch Times.

The two ethnic groups may share a concern over illegal immigration, but the issue impacts them in different ways.

Hispanics who emigrated legally from Central and South American countries tend to be grateful for the opportunities they found here and wary of socialism. They see America as a land of opportunity and many have worked hard to be successful.

“[They] are very upset with what’s happening at the southern border because a lot of the things that they were getting away from in Mexico and these other places are being poured into this country in droves,” Ms. Yates said, including drug trafficking and cartel activity.

“They feel as though it homogenizes them into a group that they don’t want to be involved,” Ms. Yates said. “Because now they have to prove to people that they are here legally.”

At the same time, many blacks object to what they see as deferential treatment given to people who illegally entered the country.

“It’s causing some racial tension between the black community and the Hispanic community,” Ms. Yates said. “One lady told me, ‘They won’t even open up the Section Eight list for us to get housing, but they’re paying all that rent [for illegal immigrants].’”

Gallup reported that 79 percent of Asian Americans believe the administration has done a poor job of handling the immigration crisis.

Illegal immmigrants sleep on a sidewalk near a shelter in El Paso, Texas, on Jan. 6, 2023. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Abortion is a significant issue for Hispanic voters, who tend to be either Roman Catholic or Evangelical and very much pro-life, which could fuel the movement away from the Democratic Party.

The issue has a mixed impact on black voters. Though the black community has generally conservative social values, many see abortion as a civil rights issue.

Men and Messaging

“The data shows black males, in particular, are moving faster to Trump for a variety of issues including the perceived two-tiered justice system,” veteran political strategist Donald Nieman told The Epoch Times.

Ms. Yates concurs. “I would say black men are the tipping point of this movement,” she said. Beyond their frustration with the Democrats’ failure to deliver on some promises, the party’s messaging has been repellent to many of them.

When Stacey Abrams ran for governor of Georgia in 2022, political activist Al Sharpton took to the airwaves to support her candidacy.

“I literally have black men calling my radio show saying, ‘Well, we’ve got enough black women in power… I don’t know if I want to vote for Stacy Abrams,” Mr. Sharpton said during an MSNBC interview.

“Who would not be proud of Stacey Abrams, unless you’re so insecure as a man.”

That, according to Ms. Yates, is an example of poor messaging by Democrats.

“The Democratic Party does a terrible job of communicating, specifically to black men,” Ms. Yates said, adding that the party lost voters because they “spoke down” to them.


Mr. Byrd also has noticed that black men are more likely than black women to support President Trump.

“I’ve known more black female Republicans than men. Though I have seen more black men voting for Trump,” Mr. Byrd said.

In 2020, 95 percent of black women voted for Biden, while 87 percent of black men did so, according to Pew Research. Although there’s a gender gap, more black women are now favoring President Trump. Fully 11 percent of black women in battleground states have a preference for President Trump, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll.

“This is probably less of a race-based thing and more of a gender-based thing,” Mr. Byrd said, theorizing that men may be more inclined to favor a strong candidate who displays dominant personality traits.

“We’ve been fed a lot of likable politicians,” Ms. Yates said. “But what we’re realizing is that likable politicians do not lead to anything.” Black men appear to be looking for Mr. President, not Mr. Rogers.

Democratic Party messaging must be improved, Mr. Byrd said, and discussions are underway about how to do that. He sees a disconnect between “how the messaging is coming out and how they feel about the messaging.”

A person votes at a polling location in West Columbia, SC., on Feb. 3, 2024. (Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images)

That reality is sinking in with Democratic leaders.

A group of campaign strategists who helped win Georgia and Michigan for Biden in 2020 recently offered a model for pulling more black voters into the party in 2024, the Associated Press reported.

“The days of the symbolic fish fry and [a] one-time church visit are over,” the strategists wrote. “Black voters have always required an approach to voter engagement as diverse as the black voting coalition.”

“The campaign is designing comprehensive and robust programs in battleground states to mobilize and engage black voters,” said Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director. That includes targeted digital ads and outreach programs in black communities.

It may be too little, too late.

Impact on November

President Biden carried Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the “Blue Wall,” by margins ranging from just 0.6 to 2.8 percent. Much of that difference was made by minority voters.

“Democrats are rightly terrified at the apparent erosion in their margins among black and Hispanic voters,” Mr. Olsen said. “Any significant drop off in their margins or in the overall level of minority turnout dooms them to defeat.”

President Biden may have even bigger electoral problems according to Patricia Crouse, a professor of political science at the University of New Haven.

A consistent percentage of Democrats, mostly younger voters, have cast protest ballots in recent primary elections to call attention to the Biden administration’s policy concerning Israel and Gaza.

“You’ve got 11 to 15 percent of [Democrats] voting ‘uncommitted,’ using it as a protest vote,” Ms. Crouse told The Epoch Times. “That is a huge problem for him.”

That would be a worst-case scenario: losing 10 percent of black voters in swing states, plus another 10 percent due to protest voting.

Yet it is unclear how these two groups—minority voters disappointed with the Democratic Party and other Democrats upset by U.S. foreign policy—will ultimately impact the presidential election.

People watch a big screen displaying the live election results in Florida near the White House on election day in Washington on Nov. 3, 2020. (Olivier Douliert/AFP via Getty Images)
Meanwhile, polls indicate independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is attracting protest votes by those who don’t want to vote for either Presidents Biden or Trump. In this vein, a March Ipsos poll found 11 percent of Democrats and 14 percent of Republicans would consider voting for RFK Jr.

“We’ll see, when people actually go to vote in November, whether Republicans are able to get close to 20 percent of the black vote,” Mr. Wilson said. “If they do, that would be huge. That would be something that has not happened in the past century.”

Donald Nieman, professor of history at Binghamton University, believes the defection of minority voters has probably peaked. “It was very slight movement, and there aren’t likely to be many more black conservatives who are moveable,” Mr. Nieman told The Epoch Times.

Perhaps the most significant factor will be whether either disaffected group votes at all.

“My feeling is that they will simply opt out, that they just won’t vote in the general election,” Ms. Crouse told The Epoch Times.


A November 2023 survey by GenForward revealed that 20 percent of black and Hispanic and 16 percent of Asian voters would not participate in an election contest between Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

The same survey revealed that 36 percent of Hispanic, 17 percent of black, and 19 percent of Asian voters would vote for President Donald Trump. And 42 percent of Hispanic, 63 percent of black, and 57 percent of Asian voters would vote for President Biden.

More recently, a New York Times and Siena College poll revealed that Latinos favored President Trump over President Biden and that President Biden’s support among black voters is diminishing.

The Politics of Class

Either way, the filtering of minority voters out of one party into another is likely to shape electoral politics for years to come.

Ms. Crouse wonders if the days of the two-party system are numbered.

“I think what you’re going to see is that the lines [between the parties] are becoming blurred in terms of what the party stands for and how it matches up with voters,” Ms. Crouse said.

“I think eventually it’s going to shift toward more of an individualized approach where candidates have to campaign on the issues that they believe in and that align with the voters,” Ms. Crouse said. “I just don’t see the more established type of party that we used to have.”

In that case, political alignment may be determined more by class than by race, Mr. Wilson believes.

“It is working-class blacks and Hispanics who are more drawn to the Republican Party for some of the same reasons working-class whites have been drawn to the Republican Party,” Mr. Wilson said. “So as class becomes a more significant variable in American politics, race in turn becomes a less significant variable.”

Democratic voter James Nettles, 90, of Haarlem, New York, might be inclined to agree.

Asked whether he thought President Biden cared enough about issues that concern black people, Mr. Nettles told The Epoch Times, “Shouldn’t he be looking out for all people, not just black people? I thought color had nothing to do with it.”

Mr. Nettles was noncommittal about his November vote. “I would like to think about it, to see how things come along.”

Juliette Fairley contributed to this report.
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13 thoughts on “A Reliable Voting Bloc for Decades, Minorities Now Look for Alternatives to Democrats”

  1. We the People……screwed again by politicians who care not a damn about us:


    Not a dime for OUR border…not that we needed it since all we have to do is enforce the laws on the books contrary to the demented thing we are stuck with called Biden who puts Christians in prison for 11 years for praying.

    Thank you, Mike….how did they get to you….blackmail, threats, family? Vacate yourself and get someone in there with some courage…like MTG. And I don’t give a damn if Trump likes you. You betrayed us.

    Yeah, yeah…they gave you the talk. Is that the same talk they gave to Cynthia McKinney, Traficant….Ventura…..the juice way or the highway?

    Money to Ukraine AND Israel…gee, what do THEY have in common, eh?

    Does your form of Christianity tell you to support Ukraine that has closed down Christian churches?

    YOU are sickening.

  2. Here’s how the importing of millions of illegal immigrants will translate into democrat votes. The illegals are hooked up to false addresses, and, with no upfront identification required, are registered to vote. Their ballots come to the fake address (strip malls, out-of-business buildings, even vacant lots) and are then scooped up by democrat partisans who fill them out. It would take years for researchers to track down and invalidate these ballots coming from random false addresses using only names, because there is no database equivalent of addresses.


    “In 2024, the unique new fraud scheme – demonstrated in the data – at scale, in multiple states – now – is registering illegal aliens, flown in via the Biden Express, delivered to newly formed homeless addresses – then sending the migrants on their way – and collecting their ballots – and voting them.”

    It’s written in the colloquial, but I recommend reading the whole thing because it does offer a an effective response to this new tactic of fake addresses:

    “Fortunately, the Wisconsin team built, using Fractal quantum technology, an address aggregation query – where these “new homeless shelters” with few if any beds – pop up instantly – and a ballot being mailed there can be challenged before it’s too late!”

    On Wisconsin!

  3. A quick article that reflects mine own feelings.

    The Choice in 2024 – A Democrat “Amerika” or the USA


    Final paragraphs:

    Is the USA Still a Good Bet?

    American liberty is in considerable peril. Deceit, corruption, broken borders, woke schools, regime media, and rigged elections amount to a clear and present danger for the USA. Aristotle once warned that “republics decline into democracies and democracies degenerate into despotism.” This is exactly what is happening in Joe Biden’s “Amerika.”

    More than two centuries ago Ben Franklin told the American people they had a republic if they could keep it. Few modern leaders have dedicated themselves more dutifully to that task than the 45th President of the United States. Former President Donald Trump continues to insist that: “As long as we have faith in each other, and trust in God, then there is no goal, at all, beyond our reach. There is no dream too large, no task too great.”

    Even if it appears to be a “Hail Mary pass” at this point in the game, the “Make America Great Again Movement” is still worth betting on – and worth saying a prayer for at the same time!

  4. Any “right” leaning person who refers to undemocratic Democrats as a “democratic” party looses all credibility. Jim should be chastising any caller who does that. Some major offenders: Tulsi Gabbard, Jerome Corsi, Steve Bannon, Patric Hennigsen, and a long list of extremely stupid Republicons who are caught the undemocratic Democrats linguistic trap.

      1. Language does matter, GRB…I could not agree more. Our inability to communicate clearly and correctly is a major cause of conflict in the world today. My God, life choices are made on X or Twitter…. Give me a big damn break.
        Although, throwing the baby out with the bathwater can damage your own credibility. Bannon is doing incredible work to get this country back on a constitutional basis. Do I agree with all he states …for instance, his stand with Israel….absolutely not. But when Bannon speaks, a plethora of the upper echelon listen. He has a huge following. Personally, I would allow him a semantic slip now and then. …And all this comes from a pedantic master (me)…Jim has called me out on that at least one time.

      2. Will II, I used to listen to Banmon’s Warroom regularly, but not any longer. He doesn’t just slip up occasionally. He constantly refers to the “democratic” party all tine, and most of the people who do this are complaining about how undemocratic they are. Roger Stone is also a chronic offender. It’s like Jim constantly mispronouncing “Lahaina” even after I have politely written to him with instructions of how it is pronounced numerous times. IOt’s one thinbg to make an honest mistake, and another to be blatantly ignorant. I’m starting to notice Jim, as smart as he is, has a speech impediment. He mispronounces many words in a dislexic fashion. I’m not going to give Bannon a pass. He does have a large following, so it’s even more important that he get it correct. Same with Tulsi Gabbard. She”s a former Democrat who was ostracized from the undemocratic party, and yet she continues to refer to them as a democratic group. Jim thinks she should be VP. Republicons are basically a stupid bunch. Collectively they have no backbone, and are very poor at controlling the message. I’m not a Republicon, I support MAGA, but even Trump’s former fans are beginning to become disenchanted with him. If you want to win elections, you have to be on point. The undemocratic Democrats’ platform is to “Save democracy Vote Democratic”. How stupid can the Con’s Party be to constantly repeat their message? It’s not that Cons are good, it’s that the Demonrats are really really bad.

      3. GRB, I just counted five errors in your comment. Shall I stop reading what you have to say or just understand, as with most of us, you are just human, prone to error, mispronunciation and other foibles?

      4. You can do whatever you want., As for the errors, I saw several after it was posted, and it is a very bad look. I’ve asked Jim for the ability to edit, but it falls on deaf ears. It’s not something I want, and I certainly wish there was something I could do about it. It’s equally bad on Rumble when using an Android phone. Speech to text input with the Android phones I have is generally terrible. If AI is involved, it is a farce as it doesn’t even capitalized the first letter of sentences. I still stand by my basic premise that hardcore Republicons should not be referring to undemocratic Democrats as a “democratic” party. If you consider “Republicon” to be an error, it’s not. That’s how I spell it because they carried out 9/11 and one of the main reasons I dislike them. It’s ironic that the Demonrats are now even worse than the Republicons.

      5. GRB…”You can do whatever you want”…..in reply to my ” Shall I stop reading what you have to say or just understand….” It’s strange you speak of the importance of language and yet you reply to an obvious rhetorical question I posed to make a point. You might consider not abandoning the important content from folks like Bannon and Fetzer because you find some small discrepancies in their presentations, considering the wealth of good they do. Just sayin’.

    1. I’m still listening to Jim, but not the alternative guys he posts. He’s great at the news, and he doesn’t call Democrats “democratic.” As for Bannon, I just don’t find him interesting any longer. For one thing the establishment Republicons don’t pay any attention to him so a lot of things he says are irrelevant. He’s also “not a machine guy” and I think that’s pretty stupid. He just on the wrong side of many issues. There are a lot better sources such as TNT radio. I don’t consider it to be a trivial issue that Repubicons persist in calling Democrats a “democratic” party. It just shows how screwed up Republicons are in their thinking. Trump won the election for them in 2016, yet a large number of them don’t like him, and actually work to sabotage him. One thing I noticed when the power was out for 33 yours in Denver, listening to mainstream right wing talk radio is a very painful experience. It’s as bad as Rachael Madcow on M$13DNC.

      1. Have you considered that Democrat Party is grammatically incorrect?
        A noun cannot modify another noun.

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