VT Editors
The President of Russia agreed to come to the peace talks in Hungary – but under certain conditions
Vladimir Putin accepted Viktor Orban’s offer to personally attend peace talks in Hungary with the participation of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France, Lenta.ru reported with reference to Reuters . However, the visit will take place only if a number of conditions are met, he explained without specifics.
There are “200,000 Hungarians that live in Ukraine,” the Hungarian politician reminded of Budapest’s interest, “so we are responsible for them, nothing will threaten their lives, only if we can stop hostilities.”
Orban believes that “a ceasefire should be the first step towards peace, and this should be followed by a European peace conference.” At the same time, he is critical of the Russian special operation. The Prime Minister of Hungary stressed that his country is with Russia on opposite sides of the conflict. However, this does not prevent Budapest from cooperating with Moscow on private issues.
Hungary’s willingness to buy gas for rubles has already led to accusations from other EU countries. In addition, Orban refused to supply NATO weapons to Ukraine through the territory of his country. His position in Hungary is now very strong – in the recent parliamentary elections, the Fidesz party won an overwhelming majority, despite the skepticism of opponents.
At the same time, Orban is critical of the manner of Vladimir Zelensky to lecture other countries. “It would be better if he gave up this habit. It is unusual when a person in trouble asks for help, says that he needs help, and scolds if you do not help, ”he said.
Does Putin’s consent to negotiations in Hungary signify a fundamental readiness to make peace in Ukraine? The Kremlin is interested in Zelensky agreeing to Russia’s conditions, through negotiations Moscow wants to put an end to the military special operation, Dmitry Peskov explained .
How appropriate, however, in the midst of hostilities in Ukraine, is it appropriate for the Supreme Commander of Russia to go to a NATO country that supplies Kyiv with weapons and resources, and therefore actually fights on its side? Is this a trap that could lead Putin to The Hague? We discussed conspiracy theories with experts.
Historian and left-wing activist Alexei Sakhnin admits that opposition to Putin is possible within the Russian government.
The risk of being in The Hague for Putin is not connected with the treachery of Europe, but with the possibility of a coup in Russia. If Putin’s entourage, the military and special services vertical are unshakable, then no one in Hungary will arrest the Russian president.
Because there behind it will be the same military, nuclear machine that is here, inside the country. This is institutional protection. Otherwise, they could have dealt with him as they sometimes do with the leaders of small states that do not have serious military capabilities. If Putin is arrested in Europe, then the Russian elite is behind this.
In general, there has never been a case in history when the leader of a nuclear power was detained on the territory of another country. Although it is true, coups often take place during a leader’s foreign visit.
So it was in Thailand, Turkey, Romania – when Ceausescu traveled to Iran and in Iran itself, the shah, when everything started to rock, he fled … This is a common practice that makes it easier for internal conspirators. And, of course, Western sanctions are designed to turn Putin from a guarantor of privileges for the ruling class into a source of toxicity for them and popular discontent.
But this strategy is problematic. The leader can be removed not by a moderate, sane elite in order to start negotiations, but by the war party, which believes that the leader is not decisive enough. Because for these people the stakes in the ongoing processes are marginal.
They have two most important tools: propaganda and the security forces. And the peace party has reserves that are partially arrested, well-trained helplessness and complete confusion. In the same Hungary, a moderate ally of Germany, Miklos Horthy , ruled during the war , and then he was overthrown by the completely frostbitten Salashists.
A native of Ukraine living in the Moscow region was arrested in the case of extremism because of a video about the Russian military. This was announced by Olga Vradiy, senior assistant to the head of the regional head office of the Investigative Committee of Russia.
The director of the Freedom Institute, a member of the political council of the Rodina party, Fyodor Biryukov , believes that Putin, on the contrary, can use the negotiations in Hungary in an offensive manner.
Orban just proved in the elections that he has the support of the Hungarians, his party won, like Vucic in Serbia. These are not some marginals, but politicians who are trying to maintain a balance (I remind you that Russia had problems with Orban before). At the same time, Orban is a traditionalist, for which the European commissioners “spread rot” on him. And in this he is close to Putin. They have something to talk about.
Orban’s offer to provide a platform for negotiations with Ukraine is a challenge to the European bureaucracy, which is absolutely anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian. Therefore, for Putin to accept such an offer is completely logical. Moreover, it cannot be abandoned, because this will clearly show that not all countries in Europe are ready to act against Russia.
Another thing is that the negotiations themselves are absolutely useless. What was the point of talking to Hitler in April 1945? Of course, Zelensky is not Hitler, but rather a funny Napoleon , a chick of KVN – a club of enemies of the nation, but in this situation it is no longer possible to back down and negotiations should only go in line with not even complete denazification, but deconstruction of the state in today’s Ukraine.
Ukraine should be absolutely different both for us and for Europe. Now for us it is absolutely hostile, but for Europe it is actually an ISIS* enclave in the center of the continent.
“By inviting Putin, Oraban will increase his authority as a peacemaker,” explained an expert on Hungary, a senior researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Oleg Volokov .
“Especially if the negotiations are held with the participation of Germany and France. Because he is now in some isolation in the EU, in the Visegrad Group (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia).
SP: Orban is called an outcast by some, but in the elections he won a crushing victory over the pro-European alliance …
He is supported by the poor strata of Hungarian society, for whom he did a lot in the social field. Thanks to Orban’s lucrative gas deal with Russia, Hungary has the lowest utility rates in the EU. In addition, Orban spoke out against LGBT propaganda among children. And he also guaranteed peace to the Hungarians, while the opposition was ready to send almost troops to Ukraine. Orban sees this conflict as alien.
“SP”: – At the same time, Budapest had claims against Kiev regarding the rights of the Hungarian population of Transcarpathia. What is the status of this problem now?
— Ukrainians are cunning. They promised language relief for the Hungarians because, unlike Russia, Hungary is an EU country. However, in reality, they negotiate, promise, but do nothing, there is no result.
SP: Will Orban be able to guarantee the protection of the President of Russia?
– If this visit takes place, I think there should be no security problems.
* ISIS (Islamic State) was recognized by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014 as an extremist/terrorist organization, its activities in Russia are prohibited.
